Question:
How did 2021 excess deaths in Canada, US and UK compare?
Answer:
2021 again saw increased levels of mortality compared to previous expectations. Without wide vaccine rollout at the beginning of the year and new variants emerging towards the end, COVID-19 still had a significant impact on excess mortality in 2021. The increased levels of mortality experienced differed significantly between the US, UK and Canada.
The charts below show the percentage differences of actual deaths to expected deaths for the US, UK and Canada dating back as far as data is available.
Sources (data available at 4 March 2022)
US: Club Vita calculations based on data from the Human Mortality Database for years through 2018 and CDC data for 2019, 2020 and 2021. An estimate of under-reported deaths for North Carolina and West Virginia in the CDC data has been made for November-December 2021, based on CDC reported COVID-19 deaths. NOTE: US chart updated on 29 April 2022 to reflect latest available data. Most notably, data informing the underlying trend was updated resulting in higher estimates of excess death percentage for 2020 and 2021
UK: Club Vita calculations based on data from the Human Mortality Database, ONS and Public Health England
Canada: Club Vita calculations based on data from the Human Mortality Database for years through 2018 and Statistics Canada data for 2019, 2020 and 2021. The 2020 and 2021 results have been determined using “adjusted” weekly deaths (i.e., actual deaths adjusted for late reporting), published by Statistics Canada Table 13-10-0784-01 Provisional weekly estimates of the number of deaths, expected number of deaths and excess mortality. NOTE: Canada chart updated on 5 January 2023 to reflect latest available data from Statistics Canada resulting in an higher estimate of excess death percentage for 2021.
Canada: Expected number of deaths calculated using a similar method as that in the CMI projection model for each year back to 1960-2019 with Canadian data. For 2020 and 2021, weekly expected deaths are published by Statistics Canada.up to December 4, 2021, and the remaining weeks of 2021 were extrapolated by Club Vita.
Notes:
US: Expected number of deaths, calculated by taking the five-year running averages of observed annual deaths. Where the full five years of data is not available, simple linear regression over a proximate five-year period was used to obtain the expected number of deaths.
UK: Expected number of deaths calculated using a similar method as that in the CMI projection model for each year back to 1960-2019. For 2020 and 2021, simple linear regression over a proximate five-year period was used to obtain the expected number of deaths
Canada: Expected number of deaths calculated using a similar method as that in the CMI projection model for each year back to 1960-2019 with Canadian data. For 2020 and 2021, weekly expected deaths are published by Statistics Canada.
Key takeaways:
- Excess mortality figures in the UK, US and Canada over 2021 have been vastly different.
- Canada saw far fewer excess deaths than the UK and US in both 2020 and 2021
- The UK saw a significant drop in the number of excess deaths in 2021 compared to 2020. In contrast, the US and Canada saw an increase.
- Whether these levels of increased deaths continue and for how long will be vitally important for pension plans and insurers trying to understand future longevity trends in the UK, US and Canada.
The key questions are:
- Will these levels of excess mortality continue?
- And if so, for how long? What do you think?
Shantel Aris
Shantel joined Club Vita in January 2021 to focus on supporting Club Vita’s Canadian and international research initiatives through modelling and experience analysis work. In Shantel’s previous role, she spearheaded longevity data analytics, experience analysis, predictive modelling, and industry research at RBCI Insurance to support the pricing of annuity reinsurance contracts.
Erik Pickett PhD FIA CERA
Erik leads the dissemination of Club Vita’s insights and analytics. He began his career as a mathematician, working at a number of universities around Europe, while moonlighting as a part time street performer. He transitioned to the world of actuarial science in 2011, retaining his passion for engaging communication, training first as a pensions actuary with Mercer and Hymans Robertson and later specializing in longevity analytics with Club Vita.