COVID-19 longevity scenarios: A bump in the road or a catalyst for change?

2020 was an exceptional year and a tragic one for many families in our communities. We witnessed significantly more deaths during 2020 than were expected at the beginning of the year, and elevated deaths continue into 2021.

When thinking about pension plan finances, the isolated impact of 2020 excess mortality will be small. This is because we only expect a very small fraction of pension plan participants to die each year, so even increasing this number by 10% or more leads to only a modest change to future cashflows. What is more important are the potential knock-on effects of COVID-19 on future improvements in life expectancy in 2021 and beyond, with both positive and negative effects possible.

This is a recording of our webinar, during which we took stock of the current situation of the ongoing pandemic, and looked at vaccine roll out and emerging strains. We explored how scenario modelling, a cornerstone of risk management, can be used to explore the longevity risk arising as a result of the pandemic, and presented scenario analysis completed by Club Vita, that is also available in the whitepaper accompanying this webinar.

Finally, we explored how scenario analysis can be used by pension plans as part of their risk management framework.

Please click here to access the whitepaper that accompanies this webinar.

Please click here to access slides from this webinar.